Voice of America’s Persian Service talked to Dr. Reza Parchizadeh about President Trump’s likely course of action against Iran’s nuclear program. Parchizadeh said the Islamic Republic, in its current state of profound weakness, cannot achieve nuclear deterrence against its adversaries, even if it successfully develops a nuclear bomb. As a result, it is compelled—whether by choice or necessity—to engage in negotiations with Trump.
According to Parchizadeh, during Trump’s first term, there was no consensus on pursuing a military option against the Islamic Republic. Divided opinions within his administration allowed the regime to avoid severe repercussions. However, this time such divisions are absent. The Trump administration and Netanyahu’s government are aligned on the necessity of confronting the Iranian regime militarily, making such an escalation a distinct possibility.
For the Islamic Republic, regime preservation remains its paramount priority. Parchizadeh said over a decade ago, when discussions about a nuclear deal with the U.S. first gained momentum, he and Azad Farsani wrote an extensive article detailing this dynamic. Even now, as the regime teeters on the brink of collapse, it sees negotiation with Trump as the only viable option for survival.
Netanyahu, despite facing intense internal disagreements with his right-wing allies and risking the collapse of his cabinet, recently agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza. This decision was made even though Israel’s strategic objective of completely neutralizing Hamas remained unfulfilled. Parchizadeh believes this ceasefire signals Trump’s possible green light to Netanyahu to launch an attack on Iran—a development that should deeply concern Tehran.
Parchizadeh concluded that the current geopolitical landscape is markedly different from seven or eight years ago. At that time, the Hamas October 7 terrorist attack had not yet occurred, Tehran had yet to carry out ballistic missile strikes on Israel, and Israel had not yet decimated the Iranian regime’s network of proxy forces across the Middle East. Now, the likelihood of a large-scale Israeli attack on Iran, supported by the U.S., appears significantly high.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGgqWk8mpFI
